Paris has always been associated with romance, love, and most importantly, croissants!. But on September 6th, the City of Light will host something a bit more violent at the Accor Arena. UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho returns to France with a card that promises fireworks from the opening bell. While Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho headline the show, fight fans know that sometimes the real gems hide in the undercard shadows.
The UFC has been pushing hard into European markets over the past few years, and France has become a regular stop on their world tour. French fighters have been making waves lately, with several homegrown talents climbing the rankings. This weekend’s card gives local hero Oumar Sy a chance to shine in front of his home crowd against Brazilian veteran Brendson Ribeiro. It’s the classic story of a hometown favorite vs a dangerous outsider, and if history tells us anything, these matchups rarely disappoint!
Oumar Sy, the 29 year old stands tall at 6’4″ with an 83 inch reach that gives him a serious advantage in the clinch and at distance. His 11-1 record looks impressive on paper, but it’s his defensive stats that really catch your eye. Sy absorbs just 1.81 significant strikes per minute while defending 70% of everything thrown his way. Even more impressive is his perfect 100% takedown defense.
Sy might be defensively sound, but his offensive wrestling needs work. He only lands 33% of his takedown attempts, which could be a problem against someone like Ribeiro who knows how to scramble. He also lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, showing he picks his shots carefully rather than throwing wild haymakers.
Brendson Ribeiro brings a completely different energy to this fight. The 29 year old Brazilian has been around the block with a 17-8 record that includes some serious wars. He throws 3.26 significant strikes per minute but only connects on 42% of them, suggesting he’s more volume puncher than precision striker.
He eats 4.04 significant strikes per minute while only defending 52% of incoming damage. Even worse, his takedown defense sits at a horrifying 0%. If Sy shoots on Ribeiro, he is probably going to get him down. His submission average of 0.7 per fight shows he’s dangerous on the ground, but getting there first is the real challenge.
The oddsmakers have made their feelings crystal clear about this matchup. According to FanDuel, Oumar Sy opens as a heavy -390 favorite across most major betting sites. Meanwhile, Brendson Ribeiro sits at +280 as the underdog. These odds suggest the bookmakers believe Sy wins this fight with ease.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-260) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +190.
This fight comes down to whether Ribeiro can survive the early exchanges and drag Sy into deep waters. The Brazilian’s best path to victory involves using his takedown attempts to mix things up and keep Sy guessing. If he can get the fight to the ground, those submission skills become dangerous weapons. Ribeiro has finished 16 of his 17 wins, so he knows how to close the show when opportunities arise.
But here’s the problem. Sy’s takedown defense is perfect, and Ribeiro’s defensive holes are glaring. The Frenchman should be able to pick his spots on the feet while stuffing takedown attempts. If this fight stays standing for more than five minutes, Ribeiro’s poor strike defense will likely catch up with him. Sy has shown good finishing instincts with seven first round stoppages in his career, and he will have every opportunity to add another one here.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Oumar Sy to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Perry Nelson – Imagn Images)
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