The upcoming clash between Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig at UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho promises chaos. When two fighters with vastly different trajectories meet inside the octagon, anything can happen. Bukauskas enters this fight riding momentum from recent victories, while Craig seeks redemption after some truly bizarre recent outcomes that have left fans scratching their heads.
This matchup represents a classic crossroads fight where one man looks to build on success while the other desperately needs to turn his fortunes around. Craig’s recent adventures include one of the most ridiculous endings in UFC history when his opponent flopped around after an illegal kick, leading to a no contest. Meanwhile, Bukauskas has been steadily climbing the rankings by dismantling opponents with calculated precision.
Modestas Bukauskas (18-6) stands 6’3″ with a 78 inch reach. He matches Craig’s height but holds a slight advantage in wingspan. The Lithuanian switch hitter brings versatility to his striking game, landing 3.26 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy while absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute. His defensive metrics show room for improvement at 51% strike defense, but his takedown defense sits at a solid 77%.
Craig’s statistics reveal his one dimensional approach to fighting. The 37 year old Scottish fighter averages just 2.54 significant strikes per minute but makes up for lower output with better accuracy at 45%. Where Craig truly shines is his grappling game, attempting 1.47 takedowns per fight and boasting an impressive 1.4 submission attempts per bout. His weakness lies in takedown defense at just 35%, which could prove crucial against a fighter like Bukauskas who converts 66% of his takedown attempts despite attempting them infrequently at 0.31 per fight.
According to FanDuel, Modestas Bukauskas is a clear favorite at -390. Meanwhile, Paul Craig is a +280 underdog. This reflects both fighters’ recent trajectories and the betting public’s perception of their respective skills.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-290) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +215
This fight presents a clear stylistic clash between Bukauskas’s improving all-around game and Craig’s submission-hunting approach. The Lithuanian’s recent performances suggest he has evolved beyond simply beating lower tier opponents. His victory over Cutelaba, while controversial, showed he can handle adversity against experienced competition. Craig remains dangerous with his submission skills, but his declining athleticism and poor takedown success rate create serious problems against a well-prepared opponent.
Craig’s path to victory requires getting the fight to the ground quickly, but his 19% takedown accuracy suggests this won’t happen easily. Even if Craig succeeds in getting takedowns, Bukauskas has shown solid submission defense and the scrambling ability to return to his feet.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Modestas Bukauskas to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Brad Penner – Imagn Images)
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