This weekend at UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho in Paris, Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov is a bout that could determine the next wave of contenders in the division. These two fighters are at crucial crossroads in their careers, with momentum and positioning on the line in front of an excited French crowd.
The stylistic matchup presents fascinating contrasts between Gustafsson’s relentless pressure and Fakhretdinov’s well rounded game. After his dominant performance against Khaos Williams, the Swedish fighter has established himself as a force to be reckoned with in the UFC welterweight division. Meanwhile, Fakhretdinov brings the technical diversity and defensive awareness that has kept him unbeaten through most of his professional career. The Russian has shown he can win fights multiple ways, adapting his approach based on what opponent is in front of him.
Gustafsson stands 6’1″ with a 73 inch reach, matching Fakhretdinov’s 6’0″ frame and 74 inch wingspan. The Swedish fighter has impressed with his volume output, landing 5.83 significant strikes per minute with remarkable 76% accuracy while absorbing just 2.79 strikes per minute. His striking defense sits at 45%, but his aggressive pressure style prioritizes offense over defensive positioning. The Swede averages an impressive 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes with 58% accuracy. His perfect 100% takedown defense means opponents cannot return the favor, forcing them to beat him in areas where he holds clear advantages.
Fakhretdinov (23-1-1) brings a more measured approach that emphasizes efficiency over volume. The Russian veteran lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute with solid 52% accuracy while absorbing 3.58 strikes per minute. His 53% striking defense shows steady improvement throughout his UFC tenure. Where Fakhretdinov truly excels is his takedown defense at 91%, making it extremely difficult for wrestling heavy opponents to implement their preferred game plans. He averages 3.95 takedowns per 15 minutes with 34% accuracy, showing he’s willing to initiate wrestling exchanges when opportunities present themselves.
The betting market has established this as one of the closest fights on the entire card. Current moneyline odds show Andreas Gustafsson as a slight favorite at -122. Meanwhile, Rinat Fakhretdinov is a close underdog at +100. This tight line reflects the market’s belief that either fighter could emerge victorious depending on where the fight takes place and who can impose their preferred style.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+124) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -158.
Gustafsson’s path runs through his relentless pressure and superior cardio. This should allow him to break down Fakhretdinov’s defensive structure over three rounds. His ability to mix striking with wrestling creates constant threats that force opponents to make split second decisions under pressure.
Fakhretdinov’s best chance requires using his superior takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He must pick his spots to land meaningful strikes. His experience against high level competition should help him weather Gustafsson’s early storms. He can also potentially find opportunities to turn the momentum as the Swedish fighter’s pace begins taking its toll.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain and betting on Rinat Fakhretdinov to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Jason da Silva – Imagn Images)
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