Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer fight!
The middleweight division has always been brutal, but it’s gotten even nastier lately. There was a time when Kelvin Gastelum almost knocked out Israel Adesanya back in 2019. That fight showed everyone that Gastelum belonged with the elite fighters. He’s traded leather with Robert Whittaker, survived against Vitor Belfort, and pushed the future champion Adesanya to his absolute limit. Despite all those tough fights, Gastelum has never been knocked out cold, which says something about his chin and heart.
Now he faces a different kind of test at UFC 316 on June 7th in Newark. Joe Pyfer brings raw power that few fighters can match. This Pennsylvania native (apparently) broke Francis Ngannou’s punch record on the punch machine. But breaking records on machines is one thing and surviving against a crafty veteran like Gastelum is completely different.
Joe Pyfer walks into this fight with serious momentum and even more serious knockout power. His 13-3 record includes nine knockouts, which tells fans everything about his finishing ability. The 28-year-old recently destroyed Marc-Andre Barriault in less than a round. Pyfer also has decent submission skills hiding behind all that punching power. He’s young, hungry, and believes he can run through anyone the UFC puts in front of him.
Kelvin Gastelum brings something Pyfer hasn’t faced yet: elite-level experience and an iron chin. At 33 years old, Gastelum has seen every trick in the book during his decade-plus career. Gastelum won The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013, which seems like ancient history now. His wrestling background from high school and college gives him solid takedown defense. Plus, he earned his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so the ground game won’t scare him.
The UFC MMA odds for this fight are in. According to BetMGM, Joe Pyfer is a heavy -400 favorite. Meanwhile Kelvin Gastelum sits at +310. These numbers suggest bookmakers expect Pyfer to steamroll the veteran without much trouble.
The betting public loves knockouts, and Pyfer delivers those in spectacular fashion. His recent performances have been impressive enough to convince oddsmakers that he’s ready for this step up in competition.
This fight comes down to whether Pyfer can land his big shot early. If he catches Gastelum clean in the first round, the fight might end quickly. Pyfer’s power is legitimate, and even tough chins can crack under the right circumstances. But if Gastelum survives the early storm, things get interesting fast. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the veteran.
Gastelum’s boxing combinations and footwork should give Pyfer problems as the rounds pile up. His cardio has always been solid, while Pyfer hasn’t been tested in deep waters yet. If Gastelum can make this a grinding, technical fight, his experience advantage becomes huge. He’s been in big moments before and knows how to handle pressure.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain and betting on Kelvin Gastelum to win the fight via unanimous decision.
(Image Credit: Dustin Safranek – Imagn Images)
mma 
