On Wednesday, 04/16, the Sacramento Kings (40-42) will host the Dallas Mavericks (39-43) in the elimination round of the Play-in tournament. The Kings finished in the 9th position in the West, while the Mavericks were right behind them at 10th. Which team will save their season here? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Both teams have a lot of issues
The Kings finished the season with a win against the Phoenix Suns and had a 4-2 record to acquire the home-court advantage during the Play-in tournament. Before that, they had suffered immensely, with a 4-11 record. Such a spell indicates the weaknesses of this Sacramento unit. Their defense has struggled, and their iso-heavy offense can also take a vacation regularly.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks had an even worse finish to the season. The Warriors finished with a 1-4 record and lost the chance to attain a home-court advantage in the playoffs. They did have a 5-2 record before that, as Anthony Davis lifted them on both ends. However, not having a reliable scoring guard has held them back immensely. The Mavs are severely short-handed and have suffered many heartbreaks, resulting in their lack of wins.
Season Series
The Kings won all three games against the Mavericks during the season series. One of the wins came in Overtime, but the other two were by comfortable margins. Thus, the Kings took full advantage of the Mavericks’ woes and used these chances to remain in the postseason race. Thus, they will be the favorites to win here too.
Kings Expected Starting Lineup
SG: Keon Ellis | SG: Zach LaVine | SF: Keegan Murray | SF: DeMar DeRozan | C: Domantas Sabonis
Key Injuries/Updates: Malik Monk is OUT for the game.
Mavericks Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie | SG: Klay Thompson | SF: Naji Marshall | PF: PJ Washington | C: Anthony Davis
Key Injuries/Updates: Kyrie Irving is OUT for the game.
The Kings have scored 120+ on two occasions against the Mavericks. They have two strong iso players, DeRozan and LaVine, thus, such returns against a struggling defensive unit is expected. Meanwhile, Dallas usually struggles to go past even 110 in the absence of their lead guard Kyrie Irving. I believe these trends will hold, and the score can be in the late 210s or early 220s.
Zach LaVine to score over 25.5 points: LaVine put up around 29 PPG in April, including a 43-point outburst. He tallied 19.5 PPG in two games against Dallas, but I expect him to score around 10 more points than his season average against them.
Domantas Sabonis to grab over 14.5 rebounds: The Kings center pinned down 13.9 RPG, hoarding 15.5 RPG in two games against the Mavericks this season. I believe he will do something similar here.
Anthony Davis to score over 26.5 points: AD played just nine games with the Dallas Mavericks after the trade. He has left his impact with 20 PPG. As a Lakers center, he put up 24 PPG in four games against Sacramento this season. I expect him to be in the 27-30 range here.
Klay Thompson to nail over 3.5 triples: Thompson shot a horrendous 0/6 from three during last year’s Play-in tournament eliminator. But I expect him to bury the ghosts and hit 4 long-range bombs here.
The Kings would have loved to have Malik Monk for this game to have a decisive advantage at the PG position. However, their high-scoring iso duo provides them with more shot-creators than the Mavs. Their biggest challenge will be containing AD, who can explode for a big night, but I believe they will survive a big night from him here on the back of a big-time effort by LaVine. I see them winning by 5-7 points.
Safe Spread Pick: Kings -4.5 for -110 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
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