On Wednesday, 05/28, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder sneaked a 2-point win in Game 4 during the most exciting contest of the series. Can the Wolves recover after going down 1-3 in the series, or will the Thunder finish the series on their home floor? Go through the spread, total, and player props predictions here.
The Wolves are giving it all, but the Thunder is too much
The Timberwolves gave the Thunder all they could handle after a 42-point win in Game 3. OKC jumped to a 37-30 lead in the first quarter and extended the lead to 8 by the end of the first half. The Timberwolves cut it to five by the end of the third quarter.
They managed to cut the deficit to two points with less than 20 seconds in the game, but the Thunder smartly fouled them to prevent them from taking a three-point shot.
Thus, the strategy of fouling to concede two free throws instead of allowing a three-point shot didn’t backfire like it did in Game 1 of the WCSF against the Denver Nuggets.
It was the bench show for the Timberwolves. Their aces, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle (5 points) combined for just 21 points, shooting 1/10 from the three-point line, while committing 5 turnovers apiece.
However, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVicenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker stepped up with a 21-23 points range each. It was a huge shame that the main offensive options let such strong efforts go to waste.
Interestingly, the Timberwolves made two more threes on an exceptional 43.9% from deep and also converted six more free throws than the Thunder. However, they committed seven more turnovers, giving the visitors more field goal opportunities.
OKC has now forced 20+ turnovers for the second time this series and has already broken the record for forced TO this postseason. It will give them a huge edge in Game 5.
Oh, by the way, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recovered from a 14-point sub-par night through a 40-point effort, while Jalen Williams had 34 to their team up 3-1.
Timberwolves Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Mike Conley | SG: Anthony Edwards | SF: Jaden McDaniels | PF: Julius Randle | C: Rudy Gobert
Key bench players: SG: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG: Donte DiVincenzo, C: Naz Reid.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The last game yielded a series-high 254 points. It was the first time both squads crossed 110+ at the same time. The Thunder has now done it three out of four times, while the Timberwolves have done it twice.
However, the bookmakers are sticking to an early 220ish projections for the game, pretty much the same as last game. As for me, I see the total going “Over’ for the fourth straight game.
Anthony Edwards to score over 27.5 points: Ant-Man has had some uncharacteristic poor scoring nights in the series. A 16-point performance in Game 4 was a disappointment after he had scored 30 or more in two straight games. Overall, Edwards has gone “Over” the 26.5 mark in just 6 of the 14 games, but I see him do it in Game 5.
Chet Holmgren to score over 15.5 points: Holmgren had a strong 21-point performance in Game 4, his second 20 or more performance of the series. I see him scoring in the 16-19 range for Game 5.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker to score over 9.5 points: NAW has more than done his job off the bench. He scored 23 in Game 4, and had scored 12 points in Game 3 while contributing 17 in Game 2. I believe he will get in double-digits again.
Main pick: Points: Anthony Edwards O 27.5 Points for +116 at FanDuel
The Timberwolves have shown the fight in the series, but they should have tied the series in the last game. Now, a buoyant Thunder will return to their home floor with one foot in the NBA Finals.
It will surely produce a huge positive impact on their psyche, and I see them playing ruthless basketball to close the series in five games. Expect them to cover the spread of -8.5 here.
Bettling Lines:
Safe Spread/Money Line Pick: Spread: OKC Thunder -8.5 for -106 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
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