This weekend’s Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas perfectly captures the wild nature of the sport. Both middleweights have experienced dramatic highs and crushing lows. Their careers read like cautionary tales about the brutal reality of professional fighting.
This particular matchup at Noche UFC 3 features two fighters desperately trying to find consistency in their professional lives. Reese brings explosive knockout power but questionable durability, while Dumas carries the unique distinction of pulling out of a fight due to legal troubles involving an ankle monitor!
Zachary Reese enters this bout with a 9-2 record. The 30 year old switch-stance fighter stands an imposing 6’4″ with a 77 inch reach, giving him significant physical advantages over most middleweights. His striking statistics show an aggressive fighter who lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute with solid 54% accuracy. However, he absorbs 2.99 strikes per minute while defending just 43% of incoming attacks, revealing defensive vulnerabilities that have cost him dearly.
The American averages 2.88 takedowns per fight with impressive 58% accuracy while defending 57% of takedown attempts. His submission game also deserves respect, as he averages 1.2 submission attempts per fight. These numbers suggest Reese has multiple paths to victory when his striking isn’t finding its mark.
Sedriques Dumas brings a 10-3 record. The 29 year-old orthodox fighter measures 6’2″ with a 79 inch reach. He lands just 2.10 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy. He absorbs 2.50 strikes per minute while defending 55% of attacks, showing better defensive awareness than his opponent. Dumas’s grappling numbers reflect a fighter still developing those skills, averaging 1.25 takedowns per fight with 35% accuracy and defending just 40% of takedown attempts.
FanDuel has installed Zachary Reese as the favorite at -235. Meanwhile, Sedriques Dumas enters as the underdog at +194.These numbers reflect his superior striking output and recent decision win over a veteran opponent. The oddsmakers clearly believe his volume and physical advantages should prove decisive against Dumas.
The odds of this fight ending in a KO/TKO is -115. For submission finish, it is +190. The oddsmakers don’t see this fight going to the judges with the odds of that being +330.
This matchup hinges on whether Dumas can avoid the early damage that has plagued his UFC career. His improved defensive awareness gives him a better chance of surviving Reese’s early aggression, but his low offensive output creates problems over longer periods. The American’s superior striking volume and submission threats provide multiple paths to victory if he can weather any early storms.
Reese’s recent performance against Todorovic showed his ability to grind out victories when knockouts aren’t available. His 4.28 strikes per minute compared to Dumas’ 2.10 output suggests a significant activity gap that should favor the taller fighter. While both men have shown defensive vulnerabilities, Reese’s willingness to engage should eventually pay dividends.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Zachary Reese to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images)
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