September 13th at Noche UFC brings a crucial matchup in the lightweight division. Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon represents everything fans love about lightweight MMA – technical skill meeting raw determination in a battle that could go either way. Both fighters know this isn’t just another bout on the card, it’s a chance to prove they belong among the elite.
Garcia brings his slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and submission threats, while Gordon counters with his relentless pressure and volume striking. These two have taken different paths to reach this moment in the UFC, but both arrive hungry and ready to make a statement. When fighters with contrasting styles meet, fans are guaranteed to see fireworks that could change careers forever.
Rafa Garcia enters this lightweight clash with a solid 17-4 record. Standing 5’7″ with a 70 inch reach, the 31 year old Brazilian combines compact power with technical excellence on the ground. He lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.47. Garcia’s 43% striking accuracy isn’t spectacular, but his 60% defensive rate shows he’s learned to avoid damage. Where Garcia truly shines is in the grappling department. He averages 3.21 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with 43% accuracy. His 77% takedown defense means he can keep fights standing when he wants to, giving him control over where the action takes place.
Jared Gordon brings a completely different approach with his 21-7- 1 NC record. At 5’9″ with a 68 inch reach, the 37 year old New Yorker is known for his relentless pressure and work rate. Gordon’s striking numbers are impressive across the board: 5.67 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy while only absorbing 3.91 strikes per minute. His has superior striking defense at 56%. Gordon averages 1.83 takedown attempts per fight with 32% accuracy. His 62% takedown defense is solid but not spectacular. What’s concerning for Gordon is his 0.0 submission average, showing he rarely threatens with submissions even when fights hit the ground.
According to FanDuel, they have established Jared Gordon as a significant favorite at -225. Meanwhile, Rafa Garcia enters as the underdog at +172. These odds reflect Gordon’s superior striking volume and recent performances.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+190) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -250.
Gordon’s volume striking and pressure will test Garcia’s defensive skills, but Garcia’s takedown ability and submission threats provide clear paths to victory. Gordon has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, and Garcia’s superior grappling credentials suggest he can exploit those weaknesses.
The key factor will be Garcia’s ability to get this fight to the ground early and often. If he can secure takedowns in the first two rounds, his submission skills become extremely dangerous against Gordon’s limited ground game. However, if Gordon can stuff takedowns and keep this fight standing, his superior striking volume and cardio should carry him to a decision victory.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain with Rafa Garcia winning via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Wendell Cruz – Imagn Images)
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