September 13th brings a fight that perfectly captures this harsh reality of mixed martial arts. Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus represents everything about the sport’s unforgiving nature and second chances. Gastelum carries the burden of expectations built during his prime years when he knocked out former champions and challenged for titles He once stood toe-to-toe with Israel Adesanya in an instant classic title fight what many consider one of the greatest middleweight battles ever.
Stoltzfus arrives with the hunger of a fighter who knows this might be his only shot at facing someone with real name value. The Mexican-American celebration of Noche UFC provides the perfect backdrop for what could be either Gastelum’s redemption story or his final bow to relevance.
Kelvin Gastelum enters this middleweight clash with a record of 20-10 and one no contest. Standing 5’9″ with a 71 inch reach, the 33 year old southpaw once possessed some of the fastest hands in the division.His statistical profile tells the story of a technical striker who lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy while absorbing 3.49 strikes per minute. His 57% striking defense shows he learned to avoid damage during his prime years, but recent performances suggest those reflexes have slowed considerably.
Gastelum’s wrestling game has never been his primary weapon, averaging just 1.05 takedown attempts per fight with 34% accuracy. His 58% takedown defense is adequate but not spectacular, which could become problematic if Stoltzfus decides to mix in grappling.
Dustin Stoltzfus brings a completely different energy with his 16-7 record and the motivation of a fighter who knows opportunities like this don’t come often. At 6’0″ with a 75 inch reach, the 33 year old orthodox fighter’s striking numbers show a more measured approach at 3.14 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy while absorbing the same 3.14 strikes per minute. His 47% striking defense isn’t spectacular, but his defensive approach suggests he picks his spots carefully rather than engaging in wild exchanges.
Stoltzfus averages 2.26 takedown attempts per fight with 41% accuracy, showing both the willingness and ability to change levels when striking exchanges aren’t going his way. His 46% takedown defense needs work, but his 1.3 submission average demonstrates he can threaten with submissions once fights hit the ground.
According to FanDuel, Kelvin Gastelum is a solid favorite at -280. Meanwhile Dustin Stoltzfus sits as the underdog at +210. These odds reflect the bookmakers’ belief that name value and experience will overcome recent struggles.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -160. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+126) reflect that.
Gastelum’s experience against elite competition is undeniable. But his recent performances show a fighter who has lost the aggressive instincts that made him dangerous. His tendency to fall into long stretches of inactivity plays directly into Stoltzfus’ patient, opportunistic approach.
Stoltzfus brings physical advantages and improving skills that create legitimate paths to victory. His reach advantage should allow him to stay on the outside and pick his spots, while his wrestling credentials give him options when the striking exchanges get tough. More importantly, he hasn’t absorbed the kind of damage that Gastelum has over the years, which could prove decisive in the later rounds.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain and betting on Dustin Stoltzfus to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta – Imagn Images)
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