The UFC lightweight division is deep and unpredictable! Joaquim Silva vs Claudio Puelles showcase two fighters who embody the division’s grittier side rather than its glamorous stars. Both men enter this bout carrying the weight of recent losses and extended periods of inactivity. Their careers have taken winding paths filled with injuries, scheduling conflicts, and the brutal reality of being middle-tier fighters in the world’s most competitive organization.
These two veterans have not found consistent success in recent years. Puelles brings his dangerous submission game but lacks the striking to set it up effectively. Silva offers more well-rounded skills but has shown vulnerability to being overwhelmed by pressure. Now they will clash at Noche UFC 3.
Claudio Puelles enters this contest with a 13-4 record. The 28 year old southpaw stands 5’10” with a 72 inch reach. He lands just 1.56 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy while absorbing 2.78 strikes per minute.Puelles built his reputation as a submission specialist with three kneebar finishes in the UFC. His grappling statistics reflect this specialty, as he averages 3.17 takedowns per fight with 36% accuracy and 1.2 submission attempts per contest.
Joaquim Silva brings a 13-6 record and a more active striking approach. He stands 5’8″ with a 69 inch reach. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy. However, he also absorbs 4.53 strikes per minute while defending 53% of attacks. The Brazilian’s grappling game takes a backseat to his striking, as he averages just 0.39 takedowns per fight with 50% accuracy when he does shoot. His submission average of 0.8 attempts per fight shows he’s comfortable on the ground but doesn’t actively hunt for finishes like his opponent.
FanDuel has installed Claudio Puelles as a slight favorite at -124 odds. Meanwhile, Joaquim Silva enters as the underdog at +106 odds. These numbers reflect the oddsmakers’ belief that his submission threats and grappling advantages give him a slight edge in this matchup.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (-110) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -116.
Silva’s superior striking volume gives him the edge in stand-up exchanges, but his defensive vulnerabilities create opportunities for Puelles to find takedowns and submission attempts. The Brazilian’s experience in high pressure situations should serve him well, but Puelles’ desperation for a victory might provide the extra motivation needed to push through adversity.
Silva’s boxing and movement should allow him to control the early exchanges. But Puelles’ grappling threats will become more dangerous as the fight progresses and fatigue sets in.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain and bet on Joaquim Silva to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Jason Silva – Imagn Images)
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