September 13th brings a perfect example of how careers can shift dramatically in just one fight. Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira is a fight that may not be highly anticipated, but it is one that fans will definitely enjoy. Hernandez sits on a three fight winning streak after some rough patches, while Diego Ferreira looks to bounce back from a tough decision loss to Grant Dawson earlier this year.
Hernandez brings the energy of someone who’s found his groove again after dropping back-to-back decisions. Ferreira carries the experience of a 40-year-old veteran who’s seen everything the division has to offer, from title eliminators to hard-fought battles that tested his resolve. When two fighters with this much to prove step into the octagon during Noche UFC, fans know both men will leave everything in the octagon because neither can afford another setback at this stage of their careers.
Alexander Hernandez enters this lightweight clash with a 17-8 record. Standing 5’9″ with a 72 inch reach, the 32 year old orthodox fighter has found a rhythm that combines his natural athleticism with improved fight IQ. He lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy while absorbing 4.60 strikes per minute. His 58% striking defense demonstrates solid defensive awareness, though he still takes some damage in exchanges that could add up over three hard rounds.
Hernandez averages 1.20 takedown attempts per fight with 36% accuracy. More importantly, his 73% takedown defense has become a major weapon, allowing him to keep fights standing where his striking advantages become most apparent.
Diego Ferreira brings a wealth of experience with his 19-6 record. At 5’9″ with a 74 inch reach, the 40 year old orthodox fighter possesses a slight reach advantage. He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy while only absorbing 3.46 strikes per minute. His superior striking defense at 55% and lower absorption rate suggest better defensive positioning and counter-striking abilities.
Ferreira averages 0.86 takedown attempts per fight with 30% accuracy. His 57% takedown defense is solid but notably lower than Hernandez’s 73%. This could become problematic if his opponent decides to mix in wrestling. With 0.6 submission attempts per fight, Ferreira maintains the ability to threaten with submissions whenever fights hit the ground.
FanDuel has established this as essentially a pick-em fight, with both Alexander Hernandez and Diego Ferreira at -113. These odds reflect the competitive nature of this matchup.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -104. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-122) reflect that.
Hernandez’s ability to stuff 73% of takedown attempts should allow him to keep this fight standing where his volume striking can accumulate points over three rounds. However, Ferreira’s superior striking defense and lower absorption rate suggest he might be the more technically sound striker when exchanges develop in the pocket.
The age factor cannot be ignored. Ferreira’s 40 years could become problematic in a high-pace fight against a younger, more explosive opponent. Hernandez’s recent knockout power adds another dimension that Ferreira must respect, but the veteran’s submission threats provide equalizers that could change the fight’s complexion with one successful takedown.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Alexander Hernandez to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski – Imagn Images)
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