Boxing’s pound-for-pound king is about to face a puzzle that could finally crack his code. Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev has stirred up serious debate among fight fans who have watched ‘The Monster’ destroy everything in his path for over a decade. He has been boxing’s most devastating finisher, collecting world titles in four different weight classes while maintaining a perfect record.
But recent fights have shown some chinks in his armor. He has been dropped twice in his last two outings, something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The Japanese superstar still won both fights convincingly, but those knockdowns have given hope to challengers who previously saw him as untouchable.
Akhmadaliev represents the most dangerous threat Inoue has faced at super bantamweight, and maybe in his entire career. The Uzbek southpaw was once the division’s top dog before losing a controversial split decision to Marlon Tapales in 2023.. That loss cost him his WBA and IBF boxing titles and his shot at undisputed glory, watching helplessly as Tapales got knocked out by Inoue instead.
The sting of that defeat has motivated Akhmadaliev through a long road back to this moment, and he’s convinced he would have given Inoue a much tougher fight than Tapales did. Now he finally gets his chance to prove it on September 14th.
Inoue brings a flawless 30-0 record with 27 knockouts, numbers that speak to his incredible finishing ability and technical precision. At 32 years old, standing 5’5″ with a 67.5- nch reach, he’s not physically imposing but makes up for it with explosive power and lightning quick combinations. His orthodox stance and surgical precision have made him the most feared puncher in the lower weight classes, with opponents often looking defeated before the opening bell even rings.
Akhmadaliev’s 14-1 record with 11 knockouts might look less impressive on paper, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. The 30 year old southpaw stands slightly taller at 5’5.5″ with a 68 inch reach, giving him tiny physical advantages. The southpaw stance creates natural problems for orthodox fighters, and Akhmadaliev has shown throughout his career that he can adapt his style mid-fight and find ways to trouble opponents who come in with superior reputations.
The betting numbers reveal just how much respect Inoue commands in boxing circles. According to FanDuel, Naoya Inoue is a massive -1250 favorite. Meanwhile, Murodjon Akhmadaliev is a heavy +630 underdog.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-380) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +270.
Akhmadaliev best chance lies in using his southpaw angles to create awkward exchanges and land something significant before Inoue settles into his groove. Recent history shows that elite opponents can hurt Inoue early. Both Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas managed to drop him in opening rounds. The difference is that Akhmadaliev carries more skill and ring IQ than either of those fighters.
Inoue’s path to victory seems straightforward but requires him to weather whatever storm Akhmadaliev brings early. The Japanese star has shown remarkable ability to adjust mid fight. His body work has been devastating throughout his career, and Akhmadaliev’s frame might not handle the accumulated damage over twelve hard rounds. If Inoue can survive the early rounds without taking serious damage, his superior conditioning and finishing instincts should take over.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Naoya Inoue to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Darren Yamashita – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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