On Saturday, 04/19, the Los Angeles Lakers (50-32) will host the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) in Game 1 of the First Round in the NBA Playoffs. The Lakers finished with the third seed while the Timberwolves finished with the sixth seed. Who will come on top in this LeBron James vs Anthony Edwards duel? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Both teams were impressive against winning teams
Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers didn’t finish the season on a high note. They had a 10-11 spell after an impressive 40-21 record at one point. The low number of wins took away the second seed. However, the team had many big-time wins too. They had an impressive 27-19 record against teams with +.500 records, the second-best return in the West. The Lakers are loaded on the offensive end and can lock in defensively, thus, the late-season woes are misleading.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves had a terrific end to the season. They won 8 of their last 9 games. Apart from that, they had an impressive 17-4 run to end the season, avoiding the play-in minefield. The team had one of the best defensive returns and also elevated their offensive game to make up for their early-season woes. They also did a terrific job against teams with +.500 records like the Lakers, winning 27 of their 48 games(55%).
Match-ups: Timberwolves have depth, the Lakers have too much firepower up front
Luka Doncic can be the biggest Achilles’ Heel for the Timberwolves. The then-Mavs guard scored 32.4 points per game and made an impressive 4.6 threes per game on a 43.4% clip during the 2024 Western Conference finals. Anthony Edwards can post similar numbers, but then there is the LBJ and Austin Reaves puzzle. Thus, Julius Randle will need to step it up, accumulating around 20 PPG or so.
But there is one area where the Timberwolves can eke out an advantage: the bench. The team has Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo, all X-Factors who can combine for 30+ points. Meanwhile, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert can make it up in the frontcourt on both ends.
Thus, Rui Hachmiura, Dorian Finney-Smith, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt will have to fill the offensive holes. They can be erratic at times outside of Hachimura, which can hand the depth advantage to Minnesota. However, an assassin like Doncic, accompanied by the duo of James and Reaves, can overcome any sort of advantage.
Lakers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Luka Doncic | SG: Austin Reaves | SF: LeBron James | PF: Rui Hachimura | C: Jaxson Hayes
Key bench players: PG: Gabe Vincent, PF: Dorian Finney-Smith, PF: Jarred Vanderbilt.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Timberwolves Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Mike Conley | SG: Anthony Edwards | SF: Jaden McDaniels | PF: Julius Randle | C: Rudy Gobert
Key bench players: SG: Donte DiVincenzo, SG: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, C: Naz Reid
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.
The total between the two teams never exceeded 213 throughout the season. It speaks volumes about the defensive nature of both teams. But most of these contests took place when the Wolves hadn’t reached their offensive peak. They are now constantly going over 110, while the Lakers are actively hitting the 115+ mark. Meanwhile, LA has also conceded some of its defensive grip to attain more scoring power. Overall, I see this affair touching the 225-point mark.
Anthony Edwards to score over 29.5 points: Edwards has averaged around 28 PPG since March. However, he put up just 19 PPG in the last four games against the Lakers. But I believe he will crack the 30-point mark to begin his playoff heroics.
Luka Doncic to score over 30.5 points: Doncic has the habit of crossing the 30-point barrier, and finished the last two months of the Regular Season with a 30+ points average. Interestingly, he averaged just 19,7 PPG in three games against the Wolves. But I expect him to score over 31 points.
Julius Randle to put up over 19.5 points: The Timberwolves’ bruising forward accumulated 18.7 PPG, his lowest mark since his fourth season. He came up with around similar numbers in the three games against the Lakers this season, but I believe he will cross that mark here.
Main pick: Anthony Edwards O 27.5 for -105 at BetMGM
The Lakers have a lot of superstar power. The Wolves lack the same outside of Edwards. The Lakers do have a weakness. They go through some lackluster periods on defense, more often than the Wolves. Edwards’ record-breaking shooting can be a big factor here, so we can be in for a spicy affair. The game may be decided within five points, so I am torn about the spread either way.
Safe Spread Pick: Timberwolves +4.5 for -118 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images
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