The featherweight division loves a good story, and UFC 319’s co-main event delivers that. Lerone Murphy, the undefeated English striker who’s quietly been building a perfect resume in the UFC, faces one of the most hyped prospects in MMA history making his octagon debut. Aaron Pico was supposed to be the next big thing when he signed with Bellator as a teenager, but his journey took some unexpected detours along the way.
This fight represents two very different paths to the same destination. Murphy took the long road, grinding through regional shows and slowly working his way up the UFC ladder without much fanfare. Meanwhile, Pico arrived with massive expectations and endorsement deals before he had even had his first professional fight. Now, at 28, Pico finally gets his shot in the big leagues against a fighter who’s done everything right but somehow remains underrated.
Murphy brings an impressive set of numbers to this co-main event showdown. Standing 5’9″ with a 73 inch reach, he’s built perfectly for the featherweight division. Murphy lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute with solid 54% accuracy while absorbing just 2.48 strikes per minute. His striking defense sits at an impressive 61%, showing he’s not just accurate but hard to hit cleanly. He averages 1.45 takedowns per fight with 54% accuracy. His takedown defense of 52% suggests this isn’t where he wants the fight to go. His submission average of 0.5 per fight indicates he’s competent on the ground but much more dangerous on his feet.
Pico enters the UFC without official statistics, but his Bellator career tells us plenty about what to expect. The former wrestling standout turned mixed martial artist brings elite grappling credentials and constantly improving striking. His early career struggles came from being too aggressive and walking into shots, but recent performances show a more mature fighter who’s learned to mix his wrestling with smart striking. At 5’8″ with a 70.5-inch reach, he gives up some size to Murphy but makes up for it with explosive athleticism.
The sportsbooks initially viewed this as a relatively close fight, but now they have been changed. According to FanDuel, current odds show Aaron Pico as a -186 favorite. Meanwhile Lerone Murphy sits at +144, indicating growing confidence in the former Bellator fighter’s chances.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+158) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -205
This fight comes down to whether Pico can implement his game plan without falling into old habits. His biggest weakness has always been his tendency to abandon technique when things get heated and turn fights into wild exchanges. Against Murphy’s precise striking and excellent defense, this approach could be disastrous. The key for Pico is using his wrestling to control where the fight happens.
Murphy’s path to victory runs through his technical striking and distance management. He’s shown the ability to frustrate opponents with his footwork and timing, forcing them to make mistakes as they chase the finish. If he can stuff Pico’s early takedown attempts and force a striking battle, his experience advantage becomes crucial. Murphy has been in big fights before and knows how to handle pressure.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain and betting on Lerone Murphy to win via decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Per Haljestam – Imagn Images)
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