Brazilian fighters have always brought incredible grappling skills and heart to MMA. When two talented Brazilians meet inside the octagon, fans usually get treated to something special. This matchup between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa represents exactly what makes the women’s 125 pound division so compelling right now.
Both fighters are coming off different types of setbacks and need a statement win to keep their momentum going. Silva suffered her first UFC loss after an impressive start, while Barbosa is stepping in on short notice to save the fight. These circumstances often create the perfect storm for an unforgettable battle between two hungry competitors who know their careers hang in the balance.
Karine Silva brings an 18-5 record into this contest with serious submission skills. The 31 year old stands 5’5″ with a 67 inch reach. Her grappling game has been her calling card, averaging 2.79 takedowns per fight with a solid 50% success rate. She hunts for submissions constantly, attempting 1.9 per fight, which shows her aggressive mentality on the ground. However, her striking numbers reveal some vulnerabilities. Silva lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute with just 38% accuracy while absorbing 3.14 strikes herself. Her striking defense sits at 47%, suggesting she relies more on aggression than technical defense.The concerning stat for Silva is her 0% takedown defense, which means every opponent who has tried to take her down has succeeded.
Dione Barbosa enters with an 8-3 record. At 5’6″ with a 66 inch reach, she has a slight height advantage but gives up an inch in reach. She lands 2.35 significant strikes per minute with impressive 50% accuracy while absorbing just 2.73 strikes back. Her striking defense is significantly better than Silva’s at 67%, showing she’s learned to avoid taking unnecessary damage. On the grappling side, Barbosa attempts 1.93 takedowns per fight with 33% accuracy and boasts a much better takedown defense at 42%. Her submission rate of 2.3 attempts per fight is even higher than Silva’s, and all four of her career finishes have come by submission.
The oddsmakers have spoken on this contest. According to FanDuel, they have installed Karine Silva as a significant favorite at -200. Meanwhile, Dione Barbosa returns +168 as the underdog. These odds reflect Silva’s higher profile and impressive UFC start.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+176) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -230
Silva needs to use her aggressive grappling to overwhelm Barbosa. Her best path to victory involves securing takedowns and hunting for submissions while avoiding prolonged striking exchanges where Barbosa’s better defense could frustrate her.
Barbosa’s game plan should focus on staying patient and technical while looking for opportunities to counter Silva’s aggression. Her superior striking accuracy and defense give her a clear advantage in stand up exchanges. If she can stuff Silva’s takedown attempts and force a grinding fight, her better cardio could pay dividends in the later rounds.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Karine Silva to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski – Imagn Images)
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