Sinner is favored to advance as Musetti seeks an upset at the 2025 US Open QF.
Top seed Jannik Sinner will face 10th seed Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open 2025 quarterfinals. Sinner has yet to drop a set, cruising past Vit Kopriva, Alexei Popyrin, 27th seed Denis Shapovalov, and 23rd seed Alexander Bublik. Musetti has been equally impressive, losing just one set to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and then defeating David Goffin in straight sets. In the third round, he had a two-set lead before 24th seed Flavio Cobolli retired with a right arm injury. Most recently, he ousted Jaume Munar without dropping a set.
Sinner’s season has been outstanding, reaching the final in every event he played and winning titles in Melbourne and Wimbledon. A three-month break after the Melbourne win due to a doping suspension interrupted his campaign, but he has bounced back strongly. He has recorded 221 aces, won 79 percent of first-serve points, and converted 43 percent of 322 break-point opportunities. His rare losses have mostly come against Carlos Alcaraz in Rome, Roland Garros, and Cincinnati, where Sinner later withdrew due to illness. He also suffered a surprise defeat to Alexander Bublik in Halle.
Musetti, who peaked at No. 6 in June and is currently ranked 10th, is enjoying a career-best season. He reached the Monte Carlo final, the Madrid and Rome semifinals, and the Roland Garros semifinals, where he retired with a leg injury. Early-season quarterfinals in Argentina and Hong Kong were followed by a mid-season slump due to calf and thigh injuries. He has hit 138 aces, won 70 percent of first-serve points, converted 38 percent of 355 break points, and taken 32 percent of first-serve return points.
Jannik Sinner holds a 2-0 advantage over Lorenzo Musetti in their head-to-head. Their first clash came in 2021 in Antwerp, followed by a Monte Carlo meeting in 2023, both ending in straight-set wins for Sinner. They were also set to face off at the 2023 Barcelona Open, but Sinner withdrew due to illness.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Monte Carlo | Quarterfinals | Jannik Sinner | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2021 | Antwerp | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Jannik Sinner | Category | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 10 |
| 294-84 | Career W-L | 158-123 |
| 31-4 | YTD W-L | 26-12 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Sinner’s consistency and dominant form this season make him the likely winner, though Musetti’s resilience and past big-match experience could test the Italian if he finds an early rhythm.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets
Jannik Sinner is heavily favored at 1/20 and is expected to defeat Lorenzo Musetti, whose odds of 11/1 reflect a significant underdog status.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jannik Sinner: 1/20
Lorenzo Musetti: 11/1
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Sets Under 3.5: 11/20
Total Sets Over 3.5: 29/20
Overall Games Under 28.5: 2/1
Overall Games Over 28.5: 2/5
Sinner Set 1 Winner: 1/6
Musetti Set 1 Winner: 17/4
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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