Both Italy and Israel head into Monday’s showdown at Nagyerdei Stadion in Hungary with everything still to play for in Group I of the World Cup 2026 qualifiers. Norway are clear favourites to secure automatic qualification, leaving these two sides likely battling it out for the playoff spot. After years of World Cup heartbreak, Italy began this qualifying campaign in the worst possible way.
A 3-0 defeat to Norway in June left them playing catch-up in the group. It also brought an end to Luciano Spalletti’s reign. His replacement, Gennaro Gattuso, has been tasked with steadying the ship and ensuring La Nazionale return to the biggest stage. He started strongly, overseeing a 5-0 rout of Estonia on Friday.
(Odds via – BetMGM)
| Bets | Moneyline | Moneyline |
| Full Time Result | Israel: +625, Italy: -250 | Draw: +375 |
| Draw No Bet | Israel: +360 | Italy: -600 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5: -145 | Under 2.5: +105 |
| Israel to Win and Both Teams to Score | Yes: +900 | No: +875 |
| Italy to Win and Both Teams to Score | Yes: +200 | No: +140 |
Italy’s 5-0 rout over Estonia saw them rediscover their attacking edge as they took a remarkable 40 shots and created plenty of chances. Moise Kean opened the scoring in the match before Mateo Retegui struck twice. Late goals from Giacomo Raspadori and Alessandro Bastoni sealed a dominant performance for the home team.
A sensational second-half display 💪#ITAEST #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/CxzRch3aTU
— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) September 5, 2025
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Israel, meanwhile, continue to dream of their first World Cup appearance since 1970. Ran Ben Shimon’s side have been one of the surprise packages of qualifying and they sit three points above Italy having played a game more. In their last game, they claimed a commanding 4-0 win over Moldova.
Israel’s only major defeat of the qualifying campaign came in a 4-2 defeat to Norway. While they have lost all six of their previous meetings with Italy, this fixture offers them the chance to change that record. Even a draw here would represent a huge boost to their hopes of securing the playoff spot.
Israel vs Italy Over 2.5 Goals @ -145 as per BetMGM
Both Israel and Italy come into this clash in strong scoring form. Israel have netted twelve times in their last five outings, including a 4-0 victory over Moldova and a 3-1 win away in Estonia. Their front line has shown consistency, finding the net even against tougher opposition like Norway, where they scored twice.
Meanwhile. Italy also tend to be involved in high-scoring games – as seen in their 5-0 win over Estonia and a 3-3 draw with Germany earlier this year. With strikers Mateo Retegui and Moie Kean in fine form, the Azzurri look capable of scoring multiple goals. Considering the current form of both teams and their tendency to play open, attacking matches, backing Over 2.5 Goals looks a solid bet here.
(Odds via – BetMGM)
| Pick | Odds |
| 1-0 | +1450 |
| 0-0 | +1250 |
| 0-1 | +625 |
| 0-2 | +650 |
| 0-3 | +900 |
| 0-4 | +1500 |
| 1-1 | +800 |
| 1-2 | +700 |
| 1-3 | +1050 |
| 1-4 | +1800 |
| 2-4 | +3300 |
For Italy, anything less than three points will feel like failure. With their attacking firepower clicking back into gear and the pressure of history weighing on them after two missed World Cups, Gattuso’s men must deliver. Italy’s renewed spark in attack should prove decisive. If their defense remains disciplined, the Azzurri have enough quality to secure all three points with a victory here.
Final Prediction: Israel 1-3 Italy
Bettors can explore a variety of betting options on BetMGM, including full-time results, over/under goals, and player props for this exciting clash.
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