The NBA Finals are reaching their climax. On June 13, the Indiana Pacers will host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the championship round. The Pacers are now up 2-1 after an impressive 116-107 win against the Thunder.
Can OKC turn the tables in Game 4, or will the Pacers continue to ascend? Go through the spread, total, and player props predictions here.
The Pacers’ clutch quotient is insane!
The Pacers continued to flash their depth in Game 3 like they have done all season. The team once again made an impressive late-game run to gain a significant advantage in the series. It was a cat-and-mouse affair. The Thunder took an 8-point lead in the first quarter.
Then the Pacers responded resoundingly in the second quarter, scoring 40 points to take a 4-point lead. The Thunder then took a five-point lead at the end of the third period. The score was tied with around seven minutes left in the game, but the Pacers triggered an incredible 18-9 run to finish the game.
For Indiana, three players scored in the 20+ range, but it was Benedict Mathurin who stole the show with 27 points in just 22 minutes. He is averaging around just 11 PPG, but has had such fire performances consistently. On the other hand, their defensive work was even more impressive.
The team’s impressive blitz defense held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 24 points(30.1 PPG in playoffs). OKC didn’t shoot terribly(46.8%) but committed 17 turnovers, compared to Indiana’s 13. However, Thunder’s defense wasn’t up to par as the Pacers shot 51.8%.
Overall, Mathurin’s explosion off the bench was the biggest turning point. Meanwhile, TJ McConnell’s 5 steals, 5-assist performance off the bench can’t be overlooked. Can the Thunder negate the Pacers’ depth in Game 4?
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, C: Thomas Bryant.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The last game produced 223 points, about 5-6 points below the projected range. Meanwhile, Game 2 accounted for 230 points, going a shade over the “Under”. On the other hand, in Game 1, the total was 221. So the range of 220-230 has showcased two “Under” and one “Over” score.
Overall, things have been in the expected range. After opting for “Over” in the first three games, I’ll stick to it as the projection has come from 228-229 to 226-227.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points: The Thunder guard was finally held below 30 points in Game 3 after four consecutive 33+ points performances. Thus, betting on “Over” has been a safer route.
Tyrese Haliburton U 18.5 points: Haliburton scored 22 points in Game 3, after a 17-point outing in Game 2. He has scored 20 or more in four straight home games, but I see the Thunder ending that streak.
Alex Caruso O 1.5 three-pointers: Caruso made 2 three-pointers in the last game and has now converted 2 or more threes in four of the last five games. I believe they will once again go “Over” the projected mark.
Main pick: Poins: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points for -118 at FanDuel
The Pacers have shown that having a robust bench alongside a balanced starting five is the winning formula. They are lucky to have such a stacked lineup at almost all positions.
As for the Thunder, they lost Game 3 despite a balanced scoring effort, only because the Pacers massively outplayed their bench. Will they rise up or buckle under the pressure? I believe they will tie the series here with a resounding win.
Betting Lines:
Safe Spread/Money Line Pick: Spread: Thunder -5.5 for- 118 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
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