On Tuesday, 05/27, the Indiana Pacers will host the New York Knicks in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks erased a 20-point deficit in Game 3 to acquire a much-needed 6-point win (106-100) in Game 3. Can the Pacers, who are leading 2-1, stop the pesky Knicks from leveling the series? Go through the total, spread, and player props predictions here.
The Knicks show their resilience in the postseason with big comebacks
The adage of “no lead is safe in the NBA” has been proven repeatedly throughout the playoffs. In Game 1, we saw the Pacers erase a mind-boggling 14-point deficit with less than three minutes left in the match. In Game 3, the Knicks cut down a 20-point deficit for the third time these playoffs, having done it twice against the Boston Celtics.
The explosion of three-point shooting makes even big leads look like a joke. In the fourth quarter of Game 3, it was not Jalen Brunson but Karl-Anthony Towns who took over the game to seal the deal. He scored 20 in less than seven minutes to help erase a 13-point deficit and enabled the Knicks to a four-point lead.
The Knicks then ensured they finished the Pacers to finally get a win in the series. Interestingly, KAT had just 4 points in the first three quarters, but then he made incredible cuts, went into isolation mode, and made some lovely catch-and-shoot shots too during clutch situations. An aggressive Towns can make a huge difference.
The Pacers shot 20% from the three-point line after booking two 40 %+ outings from outside. Meanwhile, the Knicks made 6 more triples and made 27 free throws, identical to the Pacers.
This was the lowest total for Indiana throughout the playoffs and just the third time in 13 games when they were limited below 110. New York showed desperation in the second half of the game while Indiana couldn’t contain Towns, while limiting Jalen Brunson to 23 points after he had scored 35+ in the first two games of the series.
The Pacers know how to make massive adjustments and are aware of the Knicks’ recurring defensive issues. On the other hand, the Knicks’ coach, Tom Thibodeau, brought Josh Hart off the bench and started Mitchell Robinson to get more size in the lineup. It means he is being flexible. What an interesting Game 4 it will be with two masterful coaches in Thibs and Rick Carlisle.
Knicks Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jalen Brunson | SG: Josh Hart | SF: OG Anunoby | SF: Mikal Bridges | C: Karl-Anthony Towns
Key bench players: SG: Miles McBride, C: Mitchell Robinson, PG: Cameron Payne.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PF: Obi Toppin, C: Thomas Bryant, PG: T.J. McConnell
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.
The first game yielded 273 points(250 in Regulation). Game 2 produced 223 and Game 3 accounted for 206 points. The Game 3 mark was more than 15 points below the projections of the bookmakers. They thought that the trend of high-scoring games would continue on Indiana’s home floor.
It means there can be a temporary shift towards low-scoring affairs, but the bookmakers remain confident that we will be in a 220+ territory nonetheless. I will go for “Under”, unlike the last time, and see a 208-218 range here.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 19.5 points: The Pacers’ lead guard scored 20 in Game 3 and has cleared the “Over” in three of the last four postseason games.. He also had a 31-point performance during Game 1, flashing his scoring prowess. In this game, I see the Knicks holding him below 18.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds: KAT has been clearing the boards at an elite level since the series against the Boston Celtics. He pulled down 15 rebounds in Game 3 and went over the “11.5” mark for the second time in three games. He has 12 or more boards in six of the last nine games. I see him continuing his incredible form here.
Aaron Nesmith to grab over 4.5 rebounds: The Pacers’ two-way forward has done a strong rebounding job, grabbing 7 in each of the last two games. He has grabbed 5+ in three of the last four games. I see him pluck at least 5 here, too.
Main pick: Rebounds: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 rebounds for +100 at BetMGM
The Pacers let a golden chance slip in Game 3. They have now allowed New York to come back in this series. New York has the personnel to level the series here, as indicated by Game 1 when they lost by a whisker and Game 3 when they made a major comeback.
If KAT continues his stellar play, New York looks like an unbeatable team. I believe they will be highly confident here and sneak another close win here. I will opt for the Money Line in the Knicks’ favor as I see another game that can be decided within 6 points.
Betting Lines-
Safe Spread Pick: Money Line: Knicks for +126 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
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