Alcaraz vs. Draper: Form, fire, and a shot at the final four.
The third-seeded Carlos Alcaraz faces off against fifth-seeded Jack Draper in a high-stakes quarterfinal clash at the Italian Open, a true top-five battle. Both players received first-round byes and have taken different routes to get here. Draper eased past Luciano Darderi and Vit Kopriva in straight sets before digging deep to stage a comeback win over Corentin Moutet in the fourth round.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, dispatched Dusan Lajovic and Laslo Djere without dropping a set and then battled past Karen Khachanov in a hard-fought three-setter to book his spot in the final eight. They’ll now clash for the sixth time, both riding momentum and eyeing a place in the semifinals.
Alcaraz has had a strong 2025 season, highlighted by titles in Rotterdam and Monte Carlo. He made deep runs at the Australian Open (QF), Indian Wells (SF), and Madrid (QF) and finished runner-up in Barcelona. Despite a recent leg injury forcing his Madrid withdrawal, Alcaraz boasts a 24-5 record, with 122 aces, a 72% first-serve win rate, and 44% break point conversion.
Draper has been equally impressive, reaching finals in Qatar, Indian Wells (title), and Madrid. He’s claimed big wins over Alcaraz and Fritz, compiling a 19-5 record with 188 aces, a 74% first-serve win rate, and 41% break point conversion. Though early exits in Miami and Monte Carlo slowed his roll, Draper’s consistency has firmly placed him among the season’s top performers.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Jack Draper 3–2, but the rivalry runs deeper than the numbers suggest. Nearly every match has featured dropped sets or tiebreak drama, making their contests must-watch encounters. Notably, two of Alcaraz’s three wins came via retirements, with Draper forced to stop mid-match due to injury, raising the question of how different the record might look had he stayed healthy.
Their rivalry began in 2022 in Basel, where Alcaraz rallied from a set down to take the win. In their next meeting at Indian Wells in 2023, Draper retired with an abdominal injury after dropping the first set. A year later, the Brit bounced back on home turf at Queen’s Club, winning in straight sets, including a first-set tiebreak.
In 2025, they’ve already met twice. At the Australian Open, Draper was forced to retire mid-match again, this time due to hip tendinitis. But in Indian Wells, he finally got his statement win, defeating Alcaraz in three sets.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indian Wells | Semifinal | Jack Draper | 6–1, 0–6, 6–4 |
| 2025 | Melbourne | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7–5, 6–1, RET |
| 2024 | Queen’s Club | Round of 16 | Jack Draper | 7–6, 6–3 |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–2, 2–0, RET |
| 2022 | Basel | Round of 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3–6, 6–2, 7–5 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Category | Jack Draper |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ranking | 5 |
| 233-61 | Career W-L | 98-56 |
| 24-5 | YTD W-L | 19-5 |
| 18 | Career Titles | 3 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 1 |
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3–2 and brings both clay-court experience and strong form into this clash. However, Draper’s consistency and a recent win over Alcaraz make him a serious contender. If Alcaraz sustains his rhythm, he holds a slight edge, but Draper has the tools to tip the balance in what shapes up to be a true 50-50 battle.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets
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Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Carlos Alcaraz: 4/11
Jack Draper: 21/10
