Sabalenka’s Power vs. Zheng’s Resilience: A Quarterfinal Clash to Watch
The stage is set for a blockbuster quarterfinal at the Italian Open, as Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng meet for the seventh time in their careers. The top-seeded Sabalenka and eighth-seeded Zheng both received first-round byes, entering the draw in the second round.
Zheng wasted no time making her presence felt, breezing past Olga Danilovic before dismantling 26th seed Magdalena Frech and former Grand Slam champion Bianca Andreescu. Sabalenka, meanwhile, opened with a commanding win over Anastasia Potapova, then battled back from a set down to defeat 31st-seeded Sofia Kenin. In the round of 16, she edged Marta Kostyuk in straight sets, sealing the second set in a tense tiebreak.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has been on a tear in 2025, reaching six finals and winning three, with a stellar 31-5 record. She opened the year with a title in Brisbane, then made the Australian Open final, falling to Madison Keys in three sets.
After a quiet Middle East swing, she surged back with finals appearances in Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, and Madrid, lifting trophies in Miami (def. Jessica Pegula) and Madrid (def. Coco Gauff), both in straight sets. Heading into Rome, Sabalenka had fired 117 aces, won 68.2% of first-serve points, and converted break points at an impressive 51.3% rate.
Zheng had a sluggish start to the season with early exits in Melbourne, Qatar, and Dubai, but found her rhythm at Indian Wells, reaching the quarterfinals before losing to world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. She backed it up with quarterfinal finishes in Miami and Charleston.
Though she suffered a surprising straight-sets loss to Anastasia Potapova in Madrid, her numbers remain strong: 71% of service games won, 33.1% return games won, and a 47.7% breakpoint conversion. Statistically sound and mentally sharper, Zheng arrives in Rome’s QF in solid form.
Aryna Sabalenka holds a dominant 6-0 head-to-head record over Qinwen Zheng. A ruthlessly one-sided rivalry where Sabalenka has dropped just one set across their 13 played. Since their first meeting in 2023, which Sabalenka won in straight sets, the dynamic has largely remained unchanged.
The lone exception came at the 2024 Wuhan Open, where Zheng managed to steal a set on home soil, but even then, Sabalenka emerged the victor. Time and again, the Belarusian has denied Zheng on the sport’s biggest stages, beating her in the finals of the Australian Open and Wuhan, as well as the group stage in the WTA Finals.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 2024 | WTA Finals | Round Robin | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Wuhan | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 |
| 2024 | US Open | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Australian Open | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2023 | US Open | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Qinwen Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranking | 8 |
| 447-193 | Career W-L | 234-101 |
| 31-5 | YTD W-L | 9-7 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Zheng’s rising form hints at a breakthrough, but Sabalenka’s 6-0 stranglehold says otherwise. Expect fireworks, momentum swings, and a tighter affair, but the world No. 1’s firepower and mental edge should see her through.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Aryna Sabalenka: 2/7
Qinwen Zheng: 13/5
