Group leaders Argentina are set to face Venezuela in Buenos Aires on Thursday in a World Cup qualifier that holds huge importance for the visitors. Lionel Scaloni’s side have already sealed their spot at the finals. However, for the visitors, the battle for the playoff place remains intense.
Argentina are clear favorites to end the qualifiers at the top of the CONMEBOL standings. They’ve dominated the qualifiers with a near-flawless record. In contrast, Venezuela are under pressure as they fight to secure the intercontinental playoff berth. That makes this clash pivotal for their campaign’s outcome.
| Bets | Status | Moneyline |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -130 |
| Total Shots | Over 24.5 | +118 |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 8.5 | +145 |
| Total Corners | Under 7.5 | +130 |
| Total Cards | Under 3.5 | +180 |
| Penalties in the Game | Yes | +186 |
Lionel Scaloni could opt to rotate his squad with qualification secured. Even so, Lionel Messi is expected to start as he targets his 194th cap. Enzo Fernandez will miss out as he will serve out his suspension, while Lisandro Martinez remains sidelined with injury.
Paulo Dybala and Matias Soule have once again been omitted from the squad. Youngsters like Nico Paz and Franco Mastantuono are in contention for minutes. It will offer Scaloni a chance to test future stars. Rodrigo De Paul is likely to retain his place despite his recent MLS switch.
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Even though injuries pose challenges, Fernando Batista’s men will likely stick with a familiar lineup. Jose Contreras remains unavailable, meaning Rafael Romo should start in goal ahead of Wuilker Farinez. Jefferson Savarino is set for his 50th cap. But with their decisive match against Colombia is approaching next for La Rojas.
Hence, the coach could opt to make some rotation. Yangel Herrera’s absence could prove to be is a significant blow for them. The Girona midfielder has been ruled out for the international window. Venezuela, who have lost six consecutive away games, will need to defy the odds to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Argentina’s unmatched offensive strength justifies the over 2.5 goals market at -130. They are currently topping the CONMEBOL standings with 35 points from 16 matches and a commanding +19 goal difference. Venezuela, in contrast, sit seventh, facing pressure to reach the playoff zone.
Bookmakers overwhelmingly back Argentina to win and cover goals. For example, Oddspedia projects an 81.8% chance of a home win. Combine Argentina’s firepower with Venezuela’s poor away form, the over 2.5 goals option looks strong.
Lautaro Martinez is in fine form and expected to lead Argentina’s frontline. FanDuel lists him as a favorite at -120 in moneyline terms for scoring anytime. Given his status as Argentina’s top scorer in recent international and domestic competitions and the upgrade in fitness levels, betting on Martinez to score anytime aligns well with both form and odds.
Lionel Messi is nearly impossible to ignore. ESPN reports this may mark his last World Cup qualifier at home, which makes it a special occasion. Historical trends show Messi regularly contributes on the scoresheet. Very few players are as consistent at both scoring and setting up goals like him. With Argentina’s dominance expected, the -320 price for Messi to score or assist anytime is reflects rightfully.
| Picks | Moneyline |
| Lautaro Martinez to score first | +320 |
| Lionel Messi to score anytime | -230 |
| Nico Paz to assist anytime | +175 |
| Julian Alvarez to either score or assist | -160 |
| Jose Martinez to see a card | +135 |
| Nicolas Otamendi to commit one foul or more | -250 |
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Argentina have already secured qualification. And they’re boasting an excellent home record – just one home draw (1-1 vs Colombia) is spoiling their otherwise flawless run. Venezuela, meanwhile, have yet to win a match on the road in this campaign. So, they face immense pressure to stay in playoff contention.
Argentina’s superior quality, especially in attack, plus Venezuela’s defensive frailties on the road, point to a likely 3-0 home win to wrap up the qualifier in style and maintain momentum heading into the final rounds.
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