This weekend’s Jose Medina vs Dusko Todorovic shows exactly why the middleweight division remains so competitive. Both fighters enter this bout desperately needing a win, but for very different reasons. The pressure couldn’t be higher for either man.
When two fighters have their backs against the wall, expect violence. This middleweight clash at Noche UFC promises exactly that kind of intensity. Both men have shown they can finish fights, which makes this matchup particularly intriguing for fight fans and bettors alike.
Jose Medina brings an 11-5 record into this fight, but his UFC journey has been rough. The Bolivian striker stands 6 feet tall with a 74 inch reach and fights from an orthodox stance. Medina lands just 2.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.25 strikes per minute. His striking accuracy sits at 36%, and his defense allows opponents to connect 53% of the time.
Medina averages 0.45 takedowns per fight with 33% accuracy, though his takedown defense needs serious work at just 31%. The 33 year old has never attempted a submission in the UFC, showing his one dimensional approach. His knockout power before joining the promotion suggests he can end fights quickly if given the chance.
Dusko Todorovic presents a more well rounded skill set despite his recent struggles. The Serbian fighter holds a 12-6 record and stands slightly taller at 6’1” with the same 74 inch reach. His striking numbers paint a picture of a more technical fighter. Todorovic lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute with impressive 57% accuracy. He also absorbs 4.53 strikes per minute while defending 47% of incoming attacks.
Todorovic averages 1.50 takedowns per fight with 17% accuracy and defends 42% of takedown attempts. He also averages 0.2 submission attempts per fight, showing he’s comfortable on the ground. At 31 years old, Todorovic has more tools in his arsenal, but consistency has been his biggest enemy lately.
According to FanDuel, they have installed Dusko Todorovic as a significant favorite at -420 odds. Meanwhile, Jose Medina enters as the underdog at +330 odds. These odds suggest the betting public sees this as Medina’s toughest test yet in the UFC.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -130. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+102) reflect that.
This fight comes down to whether Medina’s aggressive pressure can overcome Todorovic’s technical advantages. The Serbian fighter has the tools to control range with his superior striking output and accuracy. His ability to land nearly five significant strikes per minute while maintaining 57% accuracy gives him a clear path to victory. If Todorovic can weather Medina’s early storm, his cardio and technique should take over in later rounds.
Medina’s best chance lies in creating chaos early and landing his knockout punch. His chin has held up well throughout his career, allowing him to walk through punishment while hunting for the finish. However, his poor defensive statistics suggest Todorovic will find success with consistent volume striking.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Dusko Todorovic to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Per Haljestam – Imagn Images)
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