The UFC’s latest Mexican Independence Day celebration is bringing the heat to San Antonio this September. Noche UFC has become one of the most anticipated events on the fight calendar, and this year’s edition promises to deliver fireworks when two featherweight killers step into the octagon. After UFC 306 brought us an absolute spectacle at the Sphere in Las Vegas last year, the promotion is taking its third annual Noche UFC event to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas on September 13, 2025 where Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva will headline this stacked card.
These two warriors have been tearing through the featherweight division with a combination of violence and skill. Lopes sits at number #3 in the rankings after giving Alexander Volkanovski all he could handle in a title fight earlier this year. Meanwhile Silva has been climbing the UFC ladder with his explosive finishing ability. When two fighters this dangerous meet in a five round bout, fans know someone’s getting knocked out or submitted in spectacular fashion.
Diego Lopes brings a well-rounded arsenal that has served him well throughout his 26-7 career. Standing 5’11” with a 72 inch reach, his stats tell the story of a complete fighter who can win anywhere the fight goes. Lopes lands 3.70 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.76. His striking accuracy of 47% isn’t spectacular, but his defensive rate of 46% suggests he takes some damage in his wars.
Where Lopes really shines is his grappling versatility. With a takedown average of just 0.35 per fight, he doesn’t rely heavily on wrestling. However, his 67% takedown defense keeps fights standing when he wants them there. The real weapon in his arsenal is his submission game, averaging 1.9 submission attempts per fight. That Brazilian jiu-jitsu background has saved him multiple times and gives him a clear path to victory if the striking exchanges don’t go his way.
Jean Silva presents a completely different challenge. At 5’7″ with a 69 inch reach and a 16-2 record proves he knows how to overcome physical disadvantages. Silva’s striking numbers are impressive: 4.87 significant strikes landed per minute with 52% accuracy while only absorbing 4.13 strikes per minute. His 56% striking defense is solid, and he’s shown the ability to hurt opponents with his power shots.
Silva’s 0.60 takedown average shows he will mix in wrestling when needed. His 86% takedown defense means he’s tough to take down. However, with only 0.9 submission attempts per fight, he’s clearly more comfortable on his feet throwing bombs than scrambling on the ground.
According to FanDuel, they have installed Jean Silva as a -290 favorite. Meanwhile, Diego Lopes enters as the +225 underdog. These numbers might surprise many fans who see Lopes’ higher ranking.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-350) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +250.
Silva’s best chance comes from his explosive striking and ability to hurt opponents early. He’s shown he can flip a switch and overwhelm opponents with his aggressive style. If he can pressure Lopes against the cage and land his heavy shots, he could score the knockout that justifies his favorite status.
However, Lopes has the tools to exploit Silva’s aggressive approach. His jiu-jitsu background gives him a clear advantage if the fight hits the ground. Moreover, his experience in deep waters could prove crucial. Silva has never been in a five round fight, while Lopes just went 25 hard minutes with Volkanovski. That championship experience might be the deciding factor when both men are exhausted in the later rounds.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain with Diego Lopes to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Steven Bisig – Imagn Images)
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